If you have been following the news lately, the headlines around tariffs have felt like a moving target. And for retirees and pre-retirees watching their portfolios, that is worth addressing directly. Here is what actually happened and what it may mean for your financial plan.
What Changed and Why It Matters
For much of the past year, markets had largely adjusted to the existing tariff framework. Businesses built pricing models around it. Investors treated it as the new normal.
Then in February 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump violated federal law when he unilaterally imposed sweeping tariffs across the globe, with Chief Justice John Roberts writing that the president had asserted an extraordinary power to impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration, and scope without clear congressional authorization. [1]
The response came quickly. President Trump remained defiant and announced a new 10% global tariff under a different mechanism, which was then raised to 15% and structured as a temporary measure that can potentially remain in place for up to 150 days without congressional approval. [2]
In the span of a weekend, the legal foundation changed, a new structure replaced it, and markets had to reassess everything they had priced in.
Why Markets Can React to Uncertainty
We don’t see the issue for investors as simply the tariff rate itself. We see the unpredictability of the rules creating fear and uncertainty.
Businesses do not require perfect clarity to operate. They do, however, require a working set of assumptions. When those assumptions shift rapidly, companies may pause investment decisions, executives may wait for clarity, and that hesitation can show up as market volatility.
According to a 2025 Allianz Life study, 47% of Americans say market volatility has led them to feel concerned about their retirement nest egg, and 73% say they are anxious about how volatility could impact their long-term financial plan. [3]
That anxiety is understandable. But it may be worth considering what the evidence suggests about long-term investing alongside current concerns.
What This Could Mean for Retirees
For people in or near retirement, market volatility can carry a different weight than it does for someone with decades until they need their money. Two concerns are worth paying attention to.
The first is purchasing power. Tariffs can push consumer prices higher, and retirees on relatively fixed incomes may feel that pressure more acutely over time. Medical expenses tend to rise faster than general inflation, and if tariffs increase the cost of healthcare products or pharmaceuticals, the impact could be significant for retirees.
The second is how market volatility intersects with your withdrawal strategy. Taking distributions during a down market can have lasting effects that long-term investors who are still contributing do not face the same way.
What a Thoughtful Response Looks Like
The guidance from financial professionals and regulators has been consistent. A responsible investment strategy is typically one built around your risk tolerance, your retirement timeline, and your personal goals. If your portfolio was designed with these things in mind, you may want to avoid making hasty changes in response to short-term policy events.
Emotional, knee-jerk reactions to market swings can cost the average investor around 3% per year in returns. [4] Compounded over a decade, that is a meaningful difference in what you actually have available.
A few things you may want to revisit in this environment: whether your asset allocation still reflects your timeline and risk tolerance, whether your withdrawal strategy accounts for a range of market conditions, and whether your plan has enough flexibility to adapt if costs rise faster than expected.
Trade policy may continue to evolve. What should not change, in our view, is your long-term strategy.
If you have questions about how the current environment might affect your specific situation, we are happy to talk through it. Reach out, and let’s take a look together.
Sources
- CNN, February 2026. Supreme Court rules that Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs are illegal. https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/20/politics/supreme-court-tariffs
- CTV News, February 2026. Trump says he’ll raise tariffs to 15 per cent after U.S. Supreme Court ruling. https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps-tariffs/article/trump-says-hell-raise-tariffs-to-15-per-cent-after-us-supreme-court-ruling/
- Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, June 2025. 2025 Q2 Quarterly Market Perceptions Study. https://www.allianzlife.com/about/newsroom/2025-Press-Releases/Allianz-Life-Study-Finds-Record-High-Investment-Anxiety
- Oxford Risk Research and Analysis, via Carson Allaria, 2025. https://carsonallaria.com/2025/03/17/how-tariffs-impact-your-investments-retirement-everyday-expenses/